{"id":463370,"date":"2026-05-12T09:00:35","date_gmt":"2026-05-12T07:00:35","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/llyc.global\/?p=463370"},"modified":"2026-05-12T11:47:54","modified_gmt":"2026-05-12T09:47:54","slug":"the-geopolitical-perspective","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/llyc.global\/en\/ideas\/uno\/the-geopolitical-perspective\/","title":{"rendered":"The geopolitical perspective"},"content":{"rendered":"

The Russian invasion of Ukraine and Donald Trump\u2019s second term<\/strong> have combined to bring an end to a long phase in international relations. Europeans need to wake up and adapt to a very different, much more adverse reality. Business leaders and executives cannot remain indifferent to the ongoing changes, because the reconfiguration of power on the international stage has become the primary source of risks and opportunities for their companies.<\/strong><\/p>\n

The goal of global prosperity, central during the thirty years following the fall of the Berlin Wall, gives way to the imperative of security, understood in a national key and as an expansive concept.<\/p>\n

“We are moving from efficiency to resilience. We are witnessing the transition from a global liberal order to a widespread zero-sum mentality, based on power relations in which there must always be winners and losers.”<\/strong><\/p><\/blockquote>\n

Economic deglobalization is advancing in a world that, nevertheless, remains highly interconnected. International Law is being devalued in favor of competition based on the law of the strongest.<\/p>\n

We are again witnessing a confrontation between two great countries, the United States versus China.<\/strong> This is a new cold war, very different from the first. China has woven a limitless alliance with Russia and projects its global ambition with increasing assertiveness. The United States is withdrawing, but it is an isolation compatible with imperial impulses, from Venezuela to Iran. Its renunciation of being a provider of global public goods weakens its relationship with its allies in Europe and Asia, even though they remain indispensable in critical situations like those we are experiencing these weeks.<\/p>\n

The vast majority of countries in the so-called Global South do not take sides. Some of them, emerging powers, skillfully triangulate, taking advantage of the benefits of multi-alignment and leveraging the rivalry between the two superpowers. These include India, Saudi Arabia, Brazil, South Africa, and the Emirates.<\/p>\n

<\/strong>The United States challenges the world it has created and that has so greatly benefited its citizens and companies because it understands that yesterday\u2019s solutions are now the cause of its problems. The return of Donald Trump to power in his second term has been bad news for Europe. The New York magnate\u2019s second presidency is a triple shock to the continent\u2019s defense, economy, and democracy.<\/strong><\/p>\n

Neither the Union nor its Member States have the means and cohesion to achieve strategic autonomy in the short term to face the weakening of the transatlantic relationship and the growing security threats; primarily, Russian expansionism. Europe\u2019s enormous dependence on the United States in defense and technology, and to a large extent in energy, does not allow for rapid improvisation of alternatives. Increasing pressures from Washington\u2014in trade, digital regulation, defense investment, sanctions, support for far-right parties\u2014seriously affect Europeans, who wonder how to manage this new U.S. doctrine of \u201caggressive unilateralism,\u201d<\/strong> as Jake Sullivan suggested last summer at the Aspen Institute.<\/p>\n

China\u2019s new moves in its competition for global hegemony complete this complex geopolitical panorama. Under Xi Jinping\u2019s leadership, the Asian country no longer \u201crises\u201d but \u201cfights,\u201d in the words of Ambassador Kevin Rudd. It seeks global influence through technology, trade, investments, diplomacy, and rapidly growing armed forces. It does so for reasons of internal security, to maintain the iron control of the Chinese Communist Party over the capitalist-Leninist regime established by Deng Xiaoping. Beijing needs to continue exporting, secure the supply of food, energy, and raw materials, neutralize minorities in Xinjiang, Tibet, and Hong Kong, advance in the takeover of Taiwan, and achieve international maritime projection while competing with the United States in the race for Artificial Intelligence.<\/p>\n

The two alternatives discussed in Brussels and national capitals are not realistic. On the one hand, the rapid decoupling from the United States<\/strong> through the acquisition of its own defense capabilities and strengthening the European economy (internal market, capital union, industrial policy, as well as a common strategy to compete in a digital revolution led by others). The EU is over-diagnosed. The list of unfinished tasks over many years is very long, and European society is not prepared for a centralization of powers. The Union is slow and technocratic, lacks a recognizable executive power, and anti-European parties continue to grow and govern in some countries.<\/p>\n

On the other hand, from Brussels and some national capitals, rapprochement with China<\/strong>, the other superpower, is being considered. This is a move full of contraindications due to the political nature of the Beijing regime, which is the antithesis of individual freedom and human rights.<\/p>\n

“Europeans need to achieve strategic autonomy as soon as possible, but even if they do everything right, it will take at least ten years to achieve it. Meanwhile, they must continue minimizing risks, seeking accommodations, and negotiating, despite everything, with Washington. The Trump nightmare may end much sooner than the Chinese dystopia.”<\/strong><\/p><\/blockquote>\n

In this transition to a new international order, European company executives need to develop new agility in their international diagnosis, understanding that contingencies take precedence over rules. They must learn the language of geopolitics to better analyze non-financial risks and implement both defensive measures and those favorable to the development of new businesses. But perhaps the most important thing is to remember that history rhymes, as Mark Twain said, and its cycles and waves always return. In this transition stage to a new era, companies cannot be indifferent to political processes and must know how to influence and effectively represent their interests.<\/p>\n

“In the face of accelerated change, the best executives will be those who feel comfortable living with more uncertainty.”<\/strong><\/p><\/blockquote>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

The Russian invasion of Ukraine and Donald Trump\u2019s second term have combined to bring an end to a long phase in international relations. Europeans need to wake up and adapt to a very different, much more adverse reality. Business leaders and executives cannot remain indifferent to the ongoing changes, because the reconfiguration of power on […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_et_pb_use_builder":"","_et_pb_old_content":"","_et_gb_content_width":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[86],"class_list":["post-463370","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-ideas"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nThe geopolitical perspective - UNO - LLYC<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Jos\u00e9 M. de Areilza Carvajal analyzes how global geopolitics impacts businesses: deglobalization, tensions between powers, and key insights to anticipate risks and opportunities.\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/llyc.global\/en\/ideas\/uno\/the-geopolitical-perspective\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"The geopolitical perspective\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Jos\u00e9 M. de Areilza Carvajal analyzes how global geopolitics impacts businesses: deglobalization, tensions between powers, and key insights to anticipate risks and opportunities.\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/llyc.global\/en\/ideas\/uno\/the-geopolitical-perspective\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"LLYC\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:publisher\" content=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/LLYC.Global\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2026-05-12T07:00:35+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2026-05-12T09:47:54+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/llyc.global\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/04\/Mirada-geopolitica-Desktop.jpg\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"1728\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"366\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/jpeg\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"mcsabater\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:creator\" content=\"@llorenteycuenca\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:site\" content=\"@llorenteycuenca\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"mcsabater\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"4 minutes\" \/>\n<!-- \/ Yoast SEO Premium plugin. -->","yoast_head_json":{"title":"The geopolitical perspective - 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