Emmanuel Macron’s visit to Beijing in December 2025 perfectly illustrates Europe’s increasingly weak position vis-\u00e0-vis China. Despite diplomatic gestures and the attention of President Xi Jinping, who even personally accompanied Macron to Chengdu\u2014an honor rarely granted to foreign leaders\u2014the French president returned home virtually empty-handed. He secured no significant trade agreements, made no progress in Ukraine, and obtained no real concessions from Beijing.<\/p>\n
This episode encapsulates an uncomfortable truth that Europe must accept: the economic relationship with China no longer delivers the benefits that many European leaders still believe are possible.<\/strong> Far from being an opportunity for mutual growth, this relationship has become a growing source of strategic vulnerabilities for the continent. The European Union’s trade deficit with China reached \u20ac400 billion a couple of years ago, a figure that reflects a structural asymmetry in the trade relationship and is expected to reach that record level again in 2025, following the slowdown in 2024 due to pressure from European authorities. European exports to China continue to plummet with highly negative growth rates, while the Asian giant has increased its sales to the continent. China needs more than ever to maintain its trade surplus, especially after the additional tariffs imposed by Trump, which have reduced tariffs on direct exports to the US. In this context, it is naive to think that Beijing will open its doors to European products. This dependence is particularly worrying in strategic sectors. Europe imports 100% of the heavy rare earth elements needed for nuclear reactors and fiber optics from China, as well as 97% of the magnesium used in aerospace alloys, and 85% of the light rare earth elements essential for catalysts, magnets, and the renewable energy industry. The energy crisis triggered by the war in Ukraine should have served as a lesson about the risks of over-reliance on authoritarian regimes.<\/p>\n With the US market closed due to Trump’s tariffs, Europe is now facing a flood of Chinese products seeking new markets. Chinese exports to the EU grew by 8.3% in April 2025, inundating European ports with goods originally destined for the United States. This situation puts even more pressure on European industry, which must compete with products manufactured at significantly lower costs. European companies operating in China are finding it increasingly difficult to do business in the country. European companies in China face increasing regulatory hurdles, a lack of reciprocity in market access, and an increasingly hostile environment for foreign investors. The benefits of these investments have been drastically reduced, and many European companies are reconsidering their presence in the Chinese market.<\/p>\n The outlook for Chinese investment in Europe is no less discouraging. Existing partnerships between Europe and China are compromising EU regulations on technology transfer and pollution. While China has historically secured massive technology transfers from foreign investment within its borders, Chinese investments in Europe rarely result in significant technology transfer to the continent.<\/p>\n On the other hand, many European countries eagerly await Chinese companies to bring battery and electric car plants and transfer cutting-edge technology while simultaneously creating jobs. The reality is quite different. China has no intention of transferring technology because it knows that this is precisely what allowed it to reach its current position. In fact, the plants already operating in Europe, including in Spain, use older battery models than those used in China. Finally, given that production is less expensive and more efficient in China, using plants in Europe is a less profitable option for China, which needs to protect itself from European protectionism. If European tariffs on electric cars are lifted, the incentive China currently seems to have to produce in Europe will be substantially reduced, especially given China’s current overcapacity problem and the need to generate employment within the country. However, this reasoning ignores fundamental lessons. Europe is caught on multiple fronts:<\/strong> Russia persists with hybrid attacks, the Trump administration criticizes Europe as economically moribund and security-dependent, and China has weaponized the strategic dependencies Europe has accumulated. Beijing is using its economic leverage to extract strategic political concessions, while European calls to reduce trade imbalances fall on deaf ears as China continues to refrain from taking decisive action. In fact, China is comfortable with the current imbalances because they guarantee it disproportionate influence by making the rest of the world dependent on Chinese exports. The best example is rare earth elements and critical minerals, but there are many others. Europe should focus on strengthening its strategic autonomy, reducing its critical dependencies in sectors such as rare earth minerals, green technologies, and semiconductors, as well as many others yet to come in the field of robotics, for example. <\/strong><\/p><\/blockquote>\n In addition, Europe should implement stronger trade policies, maintaining and reinforcing trade defense instruments while investing more in cutting-edge innovation and diversifying its markets. Europe must also protect itself from acquisitions of its advanced technology. Macron’s visit to Beijing marks a further step in the growing asymmetry between Europe and China, where Beijing is using its economic influence to extract strategic political concessions. Continuing down this path will only deepen Europe’s vulnerabilities.<\/p>\n Europe must learn from its past mistakes with Russia and not repeat them with China.<\/p>\n Diversification, strategic autonomy, and a firm trade policy based on reciprocity are the only paths that will guarantee the continent’s long-term prosperity and security.<\/strong><\/p><\/blockquote>\n Throwing itself into China’s arms, however tempting it may seem in light of Trump’s policies, would be a historic mistake that Europe would pay for for decades.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Emmanuel Macron’s visit to Beijing in December 2025 perfectly illustrates Europe’s increasingly weak position vis-\u00e0-vis China. Despite diplomatic gestures and the attention of President Xi Jinping, who even personally accompanied Macron to Chengdu\u2014an honor rarely granted to foreign leaders\u2014the French president returned home virtually empty-handed. He secured no significant trade agreements, made no progress in […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":22,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_et_pb_use_builder":"","_et_pb_old_content":"","_et_gb_content_width":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[86,87],"class_list":["post-466319","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-ideas"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\n
\n <\/p>\nThe mirage of exports<\/h3>\n
\nThe most common argument used to justify closer ties with China is the supposed potential of its enormous market. However, the data paints a very different picture. Not only did China end 2025 with a record trade surplus of one trillion dollars, but this imbalance is also seriously affecting Europe.<\/p>\n
\n <\/p>\nA dangerous dependence on imports<\/h3>\n
\nWhile Europe struggles to sell to China, its dependence on Chinese imports continues to grow. Currently, almost 23% of total EU imports come from China, a figure that has steadily increased over the past two decades.<\/p>\n
\n <\/p>\nInvestments with no return<\/h3>\n
\nAnother traditional argument for maintaining close relations with China is the attraction of foreign direct investment. Some European leaders still hope that China will open its market to European investment. However, this hope clashes with the reality on the ground.<\/p>\n
\n <\/p>\nThe geopolitical context<\/h3>\n
\nPressure on Europe to strengthen ties with China has intensified with Donald Trump’s return to the White House and his aggressive tariff policies. Faced with transatlantic uncertainty, some European leaders see China as an alternative to diversify their economic relations.<\/p>\n
\n <\/p>\nAn alternative strategy<\/h3>\n
\nEurope cannot afford to throw itself into China’s arms in response to Trump’s policies. The costs of abandoning the de-risking policies that the European Commission has been promoting in recent years would be enormous, and the benefits extremely limited.<\/p>\n
\n <\/p>\nConclusion<\/h3>\n
\nThe temptation to seek refuge in China in the face of uncertainties caused by US trade policies is understandable but misguided. The data clearly demonstrate that Europe no longer benefits much from its economic relationship with China:<\/strong> it is exporting less and less to the Chinese market, accumulating dangerous dependencies on imports, European investment in China is not generating the expected returns, and Chinese investment in Europe rarely transfers valuable technology.<\/p>\n