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Since the election results were announced proclaiming Donald Trump president of the United States in November 2016, experts, pundits, business executives and others working in Latin American affairs have been eagerly contacting their sources to get a sense of what the new administration\u2019s foreign policy toward Latin America would look like. Uncertainty has reigned regarding the new administration\u2019s Latin American foreign policy. The disorientation in the region following Trump\u2019s victory, which caught Latin American leaders\u2014and most of the world\u2014by surprise, has resulted in negative projections about what his administration means. Those who have not yet sounded the alarms are, at the very least, concerned. But it is still not clear how U.S. foreign policy shifts will impact the region, and analysts have learned by now that trying to predict President Trump\u2019s moves is a risky business.<\/p>\n
[\/et_pb_text][\/et_pb_column][et_pb_column type=”1_2″][et_pb_image admin_label=”Imagen” src=”https:\/\/ideasen.llorenteycuenca.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/6\/2017\/07\/graficos_eng-1.jpg” show_in_lightbox=”off” url_new_window=”off” use_overlay=”off” animation=”off” sticky=”off” align=”left” force_fullwidth=”off” always_center_on_mobile=”on” use_border_color=”off” border_color=”#ffffff” border_style=”solid”] [\/et_pb_image][\/et_pb_column][\/et_pb_row][et_pb_row admin_label=”Fila”][et_pb_column type=”4_4″][et_pb_text admin_label=”Texto” background_layout=”light” text_orientation=”left” use_border_color=”off” border_color=”#ffffff” border_style=”solid”]<\/p>\n
Additionally, the administration is still in its early days, and the president\u2019s foreign policy team is just beginning to take shape. Therefore, rather than overreact, it is advisable to step back and think strategically on how a Trump presidency might shift the United States\u2019 regional approach and how its impact might be different for various countries.<\/p>\n
Latin America, except for Mexico, was rarely mentioned during the presidential campaign, and the region will likely not be of strategic importance to the Trump administration. In the absence of specific initiatives involving the region, as well as President Trump\u2019s administration\u2019s clear \u201cAmerica First\u201d strategy, this paper will argue that this administration\u2019s foreign policy toward Latin America will be influenced by its specific positions on issues that have served as the main three pillars driving U.S. foreign policy in the region since the late 1980\u2019s: free trade, democracy & governance (soft power) and security<\/p>\n
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Exceptions to these positions within these key pillars are only likely to occur when the White House considers it necessary to court a member of the U.S. Congress\u2014especially a U.S. Senator\u2014with an interest in a foreign policy matter regarding the region. We should be particularly attentive to the foreign relations and intelligence committees, as well as the Western Hemisphere\u2019s sub-committees both in the House of Representatives and the Senate. President Trump might need to strike a deal for much-needed support, especially among Republicans, to pass key pieces of legislation regarding domestic policy, which will in the end drive most of the decisions coming from the White House. Let\u2019s explore some of the details regarding these points.<\/p>\n
[\/et_pb_text][\/et_pb_column][\/et_pb_row][\/et_pb_section][et_pb_section admin_label=”Secci\u00f3n” fullwidth=”off” specialty=”off” transparent_background=”off” background_color=”#00847d” allow_player_pause=”off” inner_shadow=”off” parallax=”off” parallax_method=”off” padding_mobile=”off” make_fullwidth=”off” use_custom_width=”off” width_unit=”on” make_equal=”off” use_custom_gutter=”off”][et_pb_row admin_label=”Fila” make_fullwidth=”on” use_custom_width=”off” width_unit=”on” use_custom_gutter=”off” padding_mobile=”off” allow_player_pause=”off” parallax=”off” parallax_method=”off” make_equal=”off” parallax_1=”off” parallax_method_1=”off” column_padding_mobile=”on”][et_pb_column type=”4_4″][et_pb_text admin_label=”Texto” background_layout=”light” text_orientation=”left” use_border_color=”off” border_color=”#ffffff” border_style=”solid” text_text_color=”#ffffff” custom_padding=”15px|15px|15px|15px”]<\/p>\n
[\/et_pb_text][\/et_pb_column][\/et_pb_row][\/et_pb_section][et_pb_section admin_label=”Secci\u00f3n” fullwidth=”off” specialty=”off” transparent_background=”off” background_color=”#eaf1e0″ allow_player_pause=”off” inner_shadow=”off” parallax=”off” parallax_method=”off” padding_mobile=”off” make_fullwidth=”off” use_custom_width=”off” width_unit=”on” make_equal=”off” use_custom_gutter=”off”][et_pb_row admin_label=”Fila” make_fullwidth=”on” use_custom_width=”off” width_unit=”on” use_custom_gutter=”off” padding_mobile=”off” allow_player_pause=”off” parallax=”off” parallax_method=”off” make_equal=”off” parallax_1=”off” parallax_method_1=”off” column_padding_mobile=”on”][et_pb_column type=”4_4″][et_pb_text admin_label=”Texto” background_layout=”light” text_orientation=”left” use_border_color=”off” border_color=”#ffffff” border_style=”solid”]<\/p>\n
Let\u2019s face it\u2014the fall of the Berlin wall caused a shift in U.S. global geostrategic interests, and after the terrorist attacks on September 11, 2001, Latin America ceased to be a foreign policy priority for its northern neighbor. Former President George W. Bush began his presidency in 2000 with strong intentions of strengthening ties with the region, symbolized by inviting former Mexican President Vicente Fox to visit the White House prior to inviting his European or Canadian counterparts. During the welcoming ceremonies, Bush declared the U.S. had \u201cno more important relationship in the world<\/a>\u201d \u00a0than with Mexico, a comment usually more associated with Great Britain. However, the terrorist attacks on U.S. soil, the ensuing wars in Afghanistan and Iraq, the battle with al-Qaeda and the clash with Iran shifted the focus of his foreign policy. Meanwhile, President Obama relegated the region to the back from the beginning, in large part for the same geostrategic reasons mentioned earlier. Additionally, his own foreign policy initiative was focused on a strategic pivot toward Asia, especially with a rapidly-rising China, as well as on reaching a nuclear deal with Iran. His contentious relationship with Russia\u2019s Vladimir Putin, whom he mistakenly tried to initially appease, and the rise of ISIS in Syria and Iraq, also kept his hands full in the foreign policy arena. The United States\u2019 neighbors to the south took a back seat during his presidency.<\/p>\n <\/a><\/p>\n [\/et_pb_text][et_pb_text admin_label=”Ladillo 2″ background_layout=”light” text_orientation=”left” background_color=”#e6eef4″ use_border_color=”off” border_color=”#ffffff” border_style=”solid” custom_padding=”35px|35px|35px|35px” header_line_height=”1.3em” text_line_height=”2.4em” header_font_size=”24px”]<\/p>\n [\/et_pb_text][et_pb_text admin_label=”Texto” background_layout=”light” text_orientation=”left” use_border_color=”off” border_color=”#ffffff” border_style=”solid”]<\/p>\n Latin America\u2019s lack of strategic importance for the United States is not likely to change under Trump\u2019s presidency given the number of pressing foreign policy issues currently facing the White House in other parts of the world. This will only change if an unprecedented situation that could endanger U.S. security takes place in the region. President Trump rarely referenced Latin America during his campaign, outside of using NAFTA as his main punching bag when debating against multilateral free trade agreements and focusing on illegal immigration coming from the US-Mexico border.<\/p>\n Nominating an Assistant Secretary of State for Western Hemisphere affairs, the top U.S. diplomat for the region, has also not been a top priority, as other key U.S. State Department posts needed to be filled first. In fact, one of Secretary of State Rex Tillerson\u2019s early setbacks came during his first week on the job, when President Trump rejected Elliott Abrams, his top choice to serve as Deputy Secretary of State, due to Abrams’ criticism of Trump during the campaign. The position was finally filled in late May, when the Senate confirmed John Sullivan to the post. A former Deputy Secretary of Commerce in George W. Bush\u2019s administration, Trump originally chose Sullivan to be the top lawyer at the Pentagon, but after a lengthy search to fill the position at the State Department, he became the candidate Trump and Tillerson settled on for the Deputy Secretary position. To be fair, the responsibility for slow confirmations of various positions in the administration cannot solely be put on the White House. Senate Democrats have also stalled confirmation hearings for every department Trump has offered, to the frustration of Republicans.<\/p>\n [\/et_pb_text][et_pb_text admin_label=”Ladillo 3″ background_layout=”light” text_orientation=”left” background_color=”#e6eef4″ use_border_color=”off” border_color=”#ffffff” border_style=”solid” custom_padding=”35px|35px|35px|35px”]<\/p>\n [\/et_pb_text][et_pb_text admin_label=”Texto” background_layout=”light” text_orientation=”left” use_border_color=”off” border_color=”#ffffff” border_style=”solid”]<\/p>\n While the current top diplomatic post for the region remains vacant, it is worth noting that the administration has named individuals with strong Latin American expertise to key government positions, although primarily in security and defense. General John Kelly, who leads Homeland Security, previously led the U.S. Southern Command, which among other things oversees security cooperation with Latin America and the Caribbean, except Mexico. Assistant Secretary for International Narcotics and Law Enforcement Affairs William Brownfield is a career foreign service officer with a long track record in Latin America, including having held the positions of Ambassador to Colombia, Venezuela and Chile. Other Latin Americanists have also recently been added to the team: Sergio de la Pe\u00f1a, a retired U.S. Army Colonel, who ran his own consulting firm advising U.S. businesses on how to strengthen relationships with Latin American governments, was named Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for the Western Hemisphere; and Juan Cruz, a career CIA veteran and former Station Chief in Colombia, was named Director for Western Hemisphere affairs at the National Security Council.<\/p>\n [\/et_pb_text][\/et_pb_column][\/et_pb_row][\/et_pb_section][et_pb_section admin_label=”Secci\u00f3n” fullwidth=”off” specialty=”off” transparent_background=”off” background_color=”#00847d” allow_player_pause=”off” inner_shadow=”off” parallax=”off” parallax_method=”off” padding_mobile=”off” make_fullwidth=”off” use_custom_width=”off” width_unit=”on” make_equal=”off” use_custom_gutter=”off”][et_pb_row admin_label=”Fila” make_fullwidth=”on” use_custom_width=”off” width_unit=”on” use_custom_gutter=”off” padding_mobile=”off” allow_player_pause=”off” parallax=”off” parallax_method=”off” make_equal=”off” parallax_1=”off” parallax_method_1=”off” column_padding_mobile=”on”][et_pb_column type=”4_4″][et_pb_text admin_label=”Texto” background_layout=”light” text_orientation=”left” use_border_color=”off” border_color=”#ffffff” border_style=”solid” text_text_color=”#ffffff” custom_padding=”15px|15px|15px|15px”]<\/p>\n <\/p>\n From the late 1980\u2019s to the present, U.S. foreign policy toward Latin America has mostly rested on three main pillars: free trade, democracy & governance (soft power) and security. From Republican presidents like Ronald Reagan, George H. W. Bush and George W. Bush to Democrats such as Bill Clinton and Barack Obama, U.S. administrations have all supported these three areas, albeit with slightly different approaches.<\/p>\n [\/et_pb_text][\/et_pb_column][\/et_pb_row][\/et_pb_section][et_pb_section admin_label=”Secci\u00f3n” fullwidth=”off” specialty=”off” transparent_background=”off” background_color=”#eaf1e0″ allow_player_pause=”off” inner_shadow=”off” parallax=”off” parallax_method=”off” padding_mobile=”off” make_fullwidth=”off” use_custom_width=”off” width_unit=”on” make_equal=”off” use_custom_gutter=”off”][et_pb_row admin_label=”Fila” make_fullwidth=”on” use_custom_width=”off” width_unit=”on” use_custom_gutter=”off” padding_mobile=”off” allow_player_pause=”off” parallax=”off” parallax_method=”off” make_equal=”off” parallax_1=”off” parallax_method_1=”off” column_padding_mobile=”on”][et_pb_column type=”4_4″][et_pb_image admin_label=”Imagen” src=”https:\/\/ideasen.llorenteycuenca.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/6\/2017\/06\/Linea_11.png” show_in_lightbox=”off” url_new_window=”off” use_overlay=”off” animation=”off” sticky=”off” align=”left” force_fullwidth=”off” always_center_on_mobile=”on” use_border_color=”off” border_color=”#ffffff” border_style=”solid”] [\/et_pb_image][et_pb_text admin_label=”Free trade” background_layout=”light” text_orientation=”left” use_border_color=”off” border_color=”#ffffff” border_style=”solid”]<\/p>\n Free trade is perhaps the one foreign policy area where this White House has demonstrated the most clarity and consistency in its position. President Trump has remained true to his electoral discourse, despite the views of those who felt his campaign was more of a show to attract voters than an explanation of his own administration’s policies. As soon as he assumed the presidency, he withdrew the U.S. from the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) free trade agreement, which focused on Asia but also included three Latin American countries (Chile, Mexico and Peru). He has also reiterated his willingness to renegotiate the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA), as well as all treaties that “do not benefit” the United States.<\/p>\n The United States made some of the worst Trade Deals in world history.Why should we continue these deals with countries that do not help us?<\/p>\n — Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) July 5, 2017<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n“President Obama relegated the region to the back from the beginning […] his own foreign policy initiative was focused on a strategic pivot toward Asia, especially with a rapidly-rising China”<\/em><\/h1>\n
“Latin America\u2019s lack of strategic importance for the United States is not likely to change under Trump\u2019s presidency”<\/em><\/h2>\n
U.S. FOREIGN POLICY PILLARS REGARDING LATIN AMERICA\u2026WHERE WILL THE TRUMP ADMINISTRATION STAND?<\/strong><\/h2>\n
Free Trade<\/span><\/h3>\n
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