{"id":57096,"date":"2018-08-30T00:00:00","date_gmt":"2018-08-29T22:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/llyc.global\/2018\/09\/25\/brazil-disputing-narratives-in-unpredictable-elections\/"},"modified":"2018-09-25T00:00:00","modified_gmt":"2018-09-24T22:00:00","slug":"brazil-disputing-narratives-in-unpredictable-elections","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/llyc.global\/en\/ideas\/brazil-disputing-narratives-in-unpredictable-elections\/","title":{"rendered":"Brazil: Disputing narratives in unpredictable elections"},"content":{"rendered":"

[et_pb_section bb_built=”1″][et_pb_row][et_pb_column type=”4_4″][et_pb_image admin_label=”Bot\u00f3n descarga” _builder_version=”3.1.1″ src=”https:\/\/ideasen.llorenteycuenca.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/6\/2018\/08\/Boton_web-ENG-01.png” url_new_window=”on” url=”https:\/\/ideasen.llorenteycuenca.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/6\/2018\/09\/DI_Disputing_narratives_in_unpredictable_elections.pdf” \/][et_pb_text admin_label=”Introducci\u00f3n ” _builder_version=”3.1.1″]<\/p>\n

There had been much speculation regarding the \u201coutsider\u201d candidates of Brazil\u2019s traditional political arena who would make the upcoming presidential election the most unpredictable since 1989. However, the final list of candidates triggered a \u201creality check\u201d moment; Brazilian voters were very much familiar with all those who have a chance of winning.<\/p>\n

In Brazil\u2019s presidential elections, slated for October, voters have witnessed many discussions regarding legal uncertainties surrounding the candidacy of former President Lula, currently in jail and who has since announced he will not run, support Haddad; political uncertainties arising from the controversial and conservative rightist candidacy of former military officer Jair Bolsonaro; and the lack of candidacy renewals of known politicians who have vied for the presidency in the past, among other topics.<\/p>\n

Five candidates are deemed top contenders, considering poll data accrued since early 2017 and the party structures supporting them during the campaign: Jair Bolsonaro<\/strong><\/a> (Social Liberal Party<\/a>), Marina Silv<\/strong>a<\/strong><\/a> (Sustainability Network<\/a>), Geraldo Alckmin<\/strong><\/a>, Ciro<\/strong> Gomes<\/strong><\/a> (Democratic Labor Party<\/a>) and Fernando Haddad<\/strong><\/a> (Lula<\/a><\/strong>\u2019s previous running mate), who will keep the Workers\u2019 Party<\/a> a primary force in these elections.<\/p>\n

Regarding the campaign issues and communication messages that are sure to mark the course of the elections, there are three main lines:<\/p>\n

[\/et_pb_text][et_pb_text admin_label=”1. Amor\/odio” _builder_version=”3.1.1″]<\/p>\n

1. The love\/hate dichotomy sorrounding Lulaism<\/strong><\/span><\/h3>\n

Former President Lula was the only candidate to hold 30% of voter intention since the 2017 polls. With no campaign promotion, Haddad is less known than the other candidates and is the subject of less rejection among the voters who know of him.<\/p>\n

Precisely during the dichotomy period brought about by the Workers\u2019 Party, in at least the last three years, Jair Bolsonaro has consolidated his support with voter intentions that range from 15% to 20%. Embracing the efforts in social media to impeach Dilma Rousseff, Bolsonaro became the loudest of the voices speaking against the Workers\u2019 Party and is now considered the leader of this movement.<\/p>\n

Numbers have thus far shown the territory had been split between Lula and Bolsonaro, who together covered 40% to 50% of the electorate. It is a considerable amount yet only half of the whole. The other half may be comprised of voters who are tired of hearing the same story every election cycle and could be the deciding factor on who moves on to the first round.<\/p>\n

[\/et_pb_text][et_pb_text admin_label=”2. Oposici\u00f3n gobierno Temer” _builder_version=”3.1.1″]<\/p>\n

2. Opposition to the Temer administration<\/strong><\/span><\/h3>\n

For various reasons (drama ensuing from impeachment and lack of communication from the government, corruption-related scandals, unpopular reform measures such as those of the Workers\u2019 Party, etc.), Michel Temer<\/a> is backed by only 6% of voters and has a 70% strong rejection of his presidency, according to Instituto Datafolha<\/a>).<\/p>\n

With less than 2% of voter intention, the presidential candidacy of Henrique Meirelles<\/a> (who, in the past has been finance minister, president of Central Bank of Brazil and president and COO of BankBoston) was confirmed in spite of unimpressive poll data and without the express backing of many of his party\u2019s leaders.<\/p>\n

[\/et_pb_text][et_pb_text admin_label=”3. Voto de \u00faltima hora” _builder_version=”3.1.1″]<\/p>\n

3. Last-minute voting and convergence of channels<\/strong><\/span><\/h3>\n

The third group of voters left to convince opposes Temer. A CNI\/Ibope poll, conducted prior to party meetings and disclosed in early August, indicated 59% of voters were undecided or intended to cast spoilt votes or vote for \u201cnone of the above.\u201d It also shows 73% of voters believe they may change their opinion.<\/p>\n

This is not a new trend. In 2014,\u00a0just two weeks before the first round, nearly 34% of Brazilian voters had not yet chosen a candidate. To capitalize on the trend and gain control of this group, several candidates who were less familiar to voters emerged in 2018.<\/p>\n

Bolsonaro is at an advantage here. He has a large part of the country\u2019s youngest voters on his side, and he benefits from Facebook pages and Twitter profiles that effectively engage voters online and consolidate his narrative through messages across different platforms. He had already invested in controlled debates easily transmittable through WhatsApp groups. At the same time, Marina Silva, who benefits from the unconditional support of Fernando Meirelles (director of \u201cCiudad de Dios,\u201d<\/em> among other films), also stated she intends to adapt her platform to a virtual context.<\/p>\n

[\/et_pb_text][et_pb_text admin_label=”Cuarto eje de debate” _builder_version=”3.1.1″]<\/p>\n

A fourth narrative line is associated with opposition to the political establishment, though it has lost the most ground given the current candidate lineup. Within this, Marina Silva is still at an advantage (she is neither leftist, nor rightist, nor Brazilian Social Democracy Party member, nor Workers\u2019 Party member, nor from the opposition, nor from the government), while Bolsonaro leads the \u201coutsider\u201d narrative.<\/p>\n

These narrative lines have been clearly laid out since the start of the election campaign. It must be observed that the three main lines were broadened by the Workers\u2019 Party candidacy. Whether or not one agrees with the 13 years of presidency, Lulaism is still the defining factor in the Brazilian political arena, within a personalized and populist model of government that has prevailed in the country since Getulio Vargas\u2019 terms. Political science and communication studies must determine the extent to which Lula has become omnipresent, to the point of substituting Vargas (and, to a certain degree, Juscelino Kubistchek) in the minds of Brazilian voters.<\/p>\n

In a way, even the narrative of opposition to the Temer administration is in line with the movement for\/against Lula. For this reason, to find common ground between the two extremes of voters (those who are ruled by that positioning in relation to Lulaism and, therefore, tend to vote for the Workers\u2019 Party or for Bolsonaro) or the discursive approach they use to seek an opportunity to position Alckmin, Marina and Ciro. With subtle differences defined in the complete report, these three contenders, organized by probability of success, must make use of highly characteristic secondary narratives to gain support.<\/a><\/p>\n

[\/et_pb_text][\/et_pb_column][\/et_pb_row][\/et_pb_section]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

[et_pb_section bb_built=”1″][et_pb_row][et_pb_column type=”4_4″][et_pb_image admin_label=”Bot\u00f3n descarga” _builder_version=”3.1.1″ src=”https:\/\/ideasen.llorenteycuenca.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/6\/2018\/08\/Boton_web-ENG-01.png” url_new_window=”on” url=”https:\/\/ideasen.llorenteycuenca.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/6\/2018\/09\/DI_Disputing_narratives_in_unpredictable_elections.pdf” \/][et_pb_text admin_label=”Introducci\u00f3n ” _builder_version=”3.1.1″] There had been much speculation regarding the \u201coutsider\u201d candidates of Brazil\u2019s traditional political arena who would make the upcoming presidential election the most unpredictable since 1989. However, the final list of candidates triggered a \u201creality check\u201d moment; Brazilian voters were very much […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":57099,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_et_pb_use_builder":"","_et_pb_old_content":"","_et_gb_content_width":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[86],"class_list":["post-57096","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-ideas"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nBrazil: Disputing narratives in unpredictable elections - LLYC<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/llyc.global\/en\/ideas\/brazil-disputing-narratives-in-unpredictable-elections\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Brazil: Disputing narratives in unpredictable elections\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"[et_pb_section bb_built=”1″][et_pb_row][et_pb_column type=”4_4″][et_pb_image admin_label=”Bot\u00f3n descarga” _builder_version=”3.1.1″ src=”https:\/\/ideasen.llorenteycuenca.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/6\/2018\/08\/Boton_web-ENG-01.png” url_new_window=”on” url=”https:\/\/ideasen.llorenteycuenca.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/6\/2018\/09\/DI_Disputing_narratives_in_unpredictable_elections.pdf” \/][et_pb_text admin_label=”Introducci\u00f3n ” _builder_version=”3.1.1″] There had been much speculation regarding the \u201coutsider\u201d candidates of Brazil\u2019s traditional political arena who would make the upcoming presidential election the most unpredictable since 1989. 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