{"id":60599,"date":"2021-03-16T00:00:00","date_gmt":"2021-03-15T23:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/llyc.global\/2021\/03\/16\/apos-vuca-as-transformacoes-do-mundo-bani\/"},"modified":"2021-03-16T00:00:00","modified_gmt":"2021-03-15T23:00:00","slug":"apos-vuca-as-transformacoes-do-mundo-bani","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/llyc.global\/pt-br\/ideas\/apos-vuca-as-transformacoes-do-mundo-bani\/","title":{"rendered":"Ap\u00f3s VUCA, as transforma\u00e7\u00f5es do mundo BANI"},"content":{"rendered":"

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Quando ach\u00e1vamos que a pandemia havia confirmado para n\u00f3s todo o diagn\u00f3stico de \u201cmundo VUCA\u201d que vivemos (vol\u00e1til, incerto, complexo e amb\u00edguo), come\u00e7amos a ouvir que o VUCA j\u00e1 pode estar ficando velho. Que j\u00e1 n\u00e3o consegue traduzir com exatid\u00e3o a recente revolu\u00e7\u00e3o que virou o mundo ao contr\u00e1rio. E que talvez j\u00e1 n\u00e3o comporte a enorme e ca\u00f3tica carga de sentimentos em rela\u00e7\u00e3o ao Novo Normal que vai se impondo. Temos agora o que muitos come\u00e7aram a classificar de \u201cmundo BANI\u201d.<\/span><\/p>\n

Voc\u00ea ainda n\u00e3o conhece o significado dessas quatro letras? Em ingl\u00eas: Brittle (Fr\u00e1gil), Anxious (Ansioso), Non-linear (N\u00e3o-linear) e Incomprehensible (Incompreens\u00edvel<\/span>). <\/span>Se ficou preocupado por n\u00e3o conhec\u00ea-lo e n\u00e3o estar devidamente atualizado, seja bem-vindo \u00e0s sensa\u00e7\u00f5es do cen\u00e1rio BANI. No nosso caso, quando ouvimos essa express\u00e3o pela primeira vez, em uma confer\u00eancia, ficamos em d\u00favida se t\u00ednhamos entendido corretamente. \u201cBANI? O que perdemos?\u201d Afinal, a defini\u00e7\u00e3o para esse contexto complexo n\u00e3o seria VUCA?<\/span><\/p>\n

Muitos v\u00e3o dizer que BANI \u00e9 um grau mais acentuado de VUCA, um \u201cupgrade\u201d, reflexo de uma transforma\u00e7\u00e3o que j\u00e1 era r\u00e1pida, mas que vem sendo acelerada e potencializada pela pandemia. Outros podem dizer que BANI \u00e9 s\u00f3 o lado mais obscuro e ca\u00f3tico do mundo VUCA. Ou ainda que um termo \u00e9 o sucessor do outro, j\u00e1 que as certezas e classifica\u00e7\u00f5es t\u00eam vida cada vez mais curta no mundo atual. O fato \u00e9 que essa simples discuss\u00e3o j\u00e1 nos mostra que nada mais \u00e9 facilmente classific\u00e1vel ou rotul\u00e1vel, n\u00e3o importa o ponto de vista. Por\u00e9m, o mais importante, mais do que as siglas, \u00e9 a reflex\u00e3o por tr\u00e1s dos acr\u00f4nimos e como isso pode nos afetar.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Para avaliarmos melhor nosso entorno atual, \u00e9 essencial retomar um pouco o conceito VUCA e entender como ele vinha sendo uma analogia quase perfeita para compreender o nosso tempo:<\/span><\/p>\n

Com mudan\u00e7as instant\u00e2neas, os acontecimentos s\u00e3o inesperados e <\/span>vol\u00e1teis<\/b>. E \u00e9 dif\u00edcil determinar causas e efeitos. Para ficarmos em apenas um exemplo: o r\u00e1dio demorou quase 40 anos para alcan\u00e7ar a audi\u00eancia de 50 milh\u00f5es de pessoas. A televis\u00e3o, para chegar ao mesmo alcance, levou 13 anos, e a internet, quatro. O cen\u00e1rio \u00e9 cada vez mais ef\u00eamero e veloz.<\/span><\/p>\n

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\u201c O\u00a0r\u00e1dio demorou quase 40 anos para alcan\u00e7ar a audi\u00eancia de 50 milh\u00f5es de pessoas. A televis\u00e3o, para chegar ao mesmo alcance, levou 13 anos, e a internet, quatro. O cen\u00e1rio \u00e9 cada vez mais ef\u00eamero e veloz.\u201d<\/h2>\n

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Devido ao volume enorme de informa\u00e7\u00f5es, ficou mais dif\u00edcil tomar decis\u00f5es. Estamos falando de outro componente VUCA: a <\/span>incerteza<\/b>. Como se antecipar aos fatos\u00a0 _atitude mandat\u00f3ria nos dias de hoje_ frente a tantas transforma\u00e7\u00f5es? Aliado a isso, h\u00e1 ainda um outro componente complicador: experi\u00eancias passadas muitas vezes n\u00e3o s\u00e3o aplic\u00e1veis ao momento para auxiliar na decis\u00e3o de rumos, ou seja, n\u00e3o temos como contar com a previsibilidade.<\/span><\/p>\n

Devido \u00e0 volatilidade e \u00e0 incerteza do cen\u00e1rio, a <\/span>complexidade<\/b> \u00e9 ainda maior. A repercuss\u00e3o de um determinado fato ou um problema \u00e9 muito mais r\u00e1pida e em camadas que precisam ser devidamente analisadas. E, de novo, \u00e9 mais um fator a se somar para embaralhar a escolha do caminho mais adequado.<\/span><\/p>\n

Por fim, temos a<\/span> ambiguidade<\/b>.<\/span> Realidades diferentes se misturam. N\u00e3o existem mais leituras semelhantes feitas por duas pessoas diferentes. A dicotomia, as avalia\u00e7\u00f5es simplificadas do contexto e a padroniza\u00e7\u00e3o de comportamentos j\u00e1 n\u00e3o explicam o mundo, n\u00e3o nos ajudam a entend\u00ea-lo.<\/span><\/p>\n

Tudo isso \u00e9 o VUCA. O termo, criado j\u00e1 h\u00e1 algumas d\u00e9cadas, ganhou ainda mais sentido a partir dos anos 2000 e mais for\u00e7a com o avan\u00e7o da tecnologia. Com o desafio trazido \u00e0s organiza\u00e7\u00f5es, os paradigmas do VUCA foram assimilados pelos executivos e pelas escolas de neg\u00f3cios. A apropria\u00e7\u00e3o do termo e de seus conceitos ajudava as empresas a se situar em um ambiente cada vez mais incerto, ajudando a tra\u00e7ar estrat\u00e9gias mais \u00e1geis, formatar modelos de neg\u00f3cio, entender a concorr\u00eancia e os stakeholders. Em 2008, com a crise financeira mundial, que teve como marco a fal\u00eancia do Lehman Brothers, o conceito ganhou ainda mais relev\u00e2ncia no mundo dos neg\u00f3cios para tomada de decis\u00f5es em um cen\u00e1rio desestabilizador.\u00a0\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

O conceito VUCA parecia ter se tornado uma b\u00fassola \u00fatil em um mundo cada vez mais dif\u00edcil de entender. Mas a pandemia e a maior crise sanit\u00e1ria em d\u00e9cadas embaralharam tudo de novo e potencializaram uma s\u00e9rie de sentimentos desestabilizadores nas pessoas. E chegamos ao conceito BANI. <\/span><\/p>\n

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\u201cA pandemia e a maior crise sanit\u00e1ria em d\u00e9cadas embaralharam tudo de novo e potencializaram uma s\u00e9rie de sentimentos desestabilizadores nas pessoas. E chegamos ao conceito BANI.\u201d<\/h2>\n

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Assim como o ocorreu com o VUCA, o termo j\u00e1 havia sido cunhado antes do que imaginamos. Sua autoria \u00e9 atribu\u00edda ao antrop\u00f3logo, autor e \u201cfuturologista\u201d norte-americano Jamais Cascio, que o apresentou em um evento no Institute For The Future (IFTF), em Palo Alto (Calif\u00f3rnia), em 2018. O insight ocorreu dois anos antes da pandemia, mas sua atualidade ganhou nova pot\u00eancia a partir dela.<\/span><\/p>\n

Cascio tem realizado palestras e Ted Talks sobre o meio ambiente, pauta que est\u00e1 cada vez mais no foco das empresas conscientes. Em 2009, publicou o livro <\/span>Hacking The Earth, Understanding The Consequences of Geoengineering. <\/span><\/i>No mesmo ano,\u00a0 foi selecionado pela revista \u201cForeign Policy\u201d como um dos Top 100 Global Thinkers.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

O primeiro artigo escrito por ele sobre o mundo BANI, <\/span>\u201cFacing the Age of the Chaos\u201d, <\/span><\/i>foi<\/span> lan\u00e7ado em abril de 2020 em sua p\u00e1gina do Blog Medium. Cascio resume a transforma\u00e7\u00e3o que mudou a hist\u00f3ria da humanidade e mostra que \u00e9 preciso ir al\u00e9m do conceito VUCA para tentar entend\u00ea-la: <\/span>\u201cSitua\u00e7\u00f5es em que as condi\u00e7\u00f5es n\u00e3o s\u00e3o simplesmente inst\u00e1veis, s\u00e3o ca\u00f3ticas; nas quais os resultados n\u00e3o s\u00e3o simplesmente dif\u00edceis de prever, e sim completamente imprevis\u00edveis. Ou, para usar a linguagem particular desses <\/span>frameworks<\/span><\/i>, situa\u00e7\u00f5es nas quais o que acontece n\u00e3o \u00e9 simplesmente amb\u00edguo, \u00e9 incompreens\u00edvel.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

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A partir das provoca\u00e7\u00f5es trazidas pelo antrop\u00f3logo, podemos refletir melhor sobre essas caracter\u00edsticas do \u201cNovo Normal BANI\u201d:<\/span><\/p>\n

Fr\u00e1gil <\/b>(Brittle)<\/span> \u2013 \u00c9 decorrente dos esfor\u00e7os para maximizar a efici\u00eancia, para extrair at\u00e9 a \u00faltima gota de valor \u2014dinheiro, energia, comida, trabalho\u2014 de um sistema. Viver em um mundo conectado faz com que fragilidades, antes restritas a localidades e grupos espec\u00edficos, repercutam em efeito cascata por todo o planeta. Essa condi\u00e7\u00e3o de fragilidade pode refletir na inseguran\u00e7a dos empregos, das companhias que correm risco de quebrar e nas transforma\u00e7\u00f5es no <\/span>drive<\/span><\/i> do mercado.<\/span><\/p>\n

Ansioso <\/b>(Anxious)<\/span> \u2013 As incertezas (mundo VUCA) s\u00e3o tantas agora que geram ansiedade desmedida e a <\/span>sensa\u00e7\u00e3o co<\/span>nstante de impot\u00eancia. Todos passaram a sentir um pouco na pele a \u201cdoen\u00e7a do s\u00e9culo 21\u201d, com medo do que possa acontecer ou dar errado, independentemente do que fa\u00e7amos. Um mundo ansioso \u00e9 aquele no qual apertamos o bot\u00e3o \u201cF5\u201d do teclado a todo momento para atualizar as not\u00edcias e descobrir o pr\u00f3ximo fato chocante. \u00c9 essa caracter\u00edstica de ansiedade que tamb\u00e9m encontramos no comportamento representado por outra sigla (sempre as siglas!): a FOMO, que traduz a express\u00e3o em ingl\u00eas \u201cfear of missing out\u201d, em outras palavras, o medo de estar por fora do que est\u00e1 ocorrendo, de estar perdendo algo. <\/span>Um exemplo \u00e9 a necessidade constante de estar atualizado nas redes sociais em tempo real, o dia todo. A ansiedade reflete a ang\u00fastia e o estresse dos tempos atuais, acentuados pela inseguran\u00e7a em rela\u00e7\u00e3o \u00e0 sa\u00fade e aos riscos de cont\u00e1gio da Covid-19.<\/span><\/p>\n

N\u00e3o-linear <\/b>(Non-linear)<\/span> \u2013<\/span> O que era complexo, por sua vez, tornou-se n\u00e3o-linear, sem um \u00fanico sentido, levando a m\u00faltiplos destinos. Os sistemas de causas e consequ\u00eancias passaram a ser desconectados ou desproporcionais. Isso nos faz lembrar diretamente da pandemia. Imposs\u00edvel ter previsto como o surgimento de um v\u00edrus em um ponto da \u00c1sia iria repercutir nos acontecimentos todos (infelizmente tr\u00e1gicos) que temos visto em diferentes cantos do mundo. O conceito de \u201cachatar a curva\u201d dos casos de Covid-19 \u00e9 inerentemente uma guerra contra a n\u00e3o-linearidade.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Incompreens\u00edvel<\/b> (Incomprehensible)<\/span> \u2013 A tentativa de encontrar todas as respostas n\u00e3o faz mais tanto sentido. A an\u00e1lise obsessiva de dados pode causar sobrecarga para entender ou tornar dif\u00edcil distinguir o ru\u00eddo de um sinal. Neste ponto, o conceito BANI caminha pelo terreno de resigna\u00e7\u00e3o. Segundo ele, como muitas vezes \u00e9 dif\u00edcil tentar traduzir ou entender o cen\u00e1rio, consider\u00e1-lo indecifr\u00e1vel pode ser a premissa para poder dar um passo adiante e tentar encontrar o pr\u00f3prio rumo.<\/span><\/p>\n

Em uma an\u00e1lise simplista do BANI, pode parecer que o mundo est\u00e1 sem sa\u00edda. A hist\u00f3ria, por\u00e9m, nos ensinou a enxergar mais \u00e0 frente. Imagine a sensa\u00e7\u00e3o de total instabilidade de sair de uma cultura dicot\u00f4mica para absorver as demandas do mundo VUCA. Na perspectiva hist\u00f3rica, foi um tempo at\u00e9 curto. Em poucos anos, muitas startups viraram gigantes do mercado, especialmente em tecnologia. Na pandemia, setores majoritariamente offline (sa\u00fade e educa\u00e7\u00e3o, por exemplo) viraram online em quest\u00e3o de meses.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

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\u201cO conceito BANI caminha pelo terreno de resigna\u00e7\u00e3o. Segundo ele, como muitas vezes \u00e9 dif\u00edcil tentar traduzir ou entender o cen\u00e1rio, consider\u00e1-lo indecifr\u00e1vel pode ser a premissa para poder dar um passo adiante e tentar encontrar o pr\u00f3prio rumo.\u201d<\/h2>\n

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Desafios renovados<\/strong><\/h2>\n

 <\/p>\n

\u00c9 dif\u00edcil prever se o mundo seguir\u00e1 da forma como o conceito BANI o define ou se o acr\u00f4nimo cair\u00e1 em desuso ou perder\u00e1 sentido \u00e0 medida que os cen\u00e1rios evoluam ou retrocedam, dependendo do ponto de vista. \u00c9 cedo para fazer previs\u00f5es. Por\u00e9m, independentemente dessa discuss\u00e3o, \u00e9 fundamental a reflex\u00e3o sobre as oportunidades e os aprendizados que podemos extrair desses novos sinais que surgem no Novo Normal.<\/span><\/p>\n

Em meio ao diagn\u00f3stico de tantos sentimentos negativos e desafiadores (como ansiedade, fragilidade e impot\u00eancia), alguns caminhos alternativos t\u00eam sido descobertos, especialmente pelas lideran\u00e7as de diversos setores da sociedade.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Entre os \u201cant\u00eddotos\u201d, est\u00e3o a empatia e a preocupa\u00e7\u00e3o com o todo, com o social. Ou seja, a consci\u00eancia de que muitas das ang\u00fastias e inquieta\u00e7\u00f5es do mundo BANI n\u00e3o s\u00e3o puramente individuais. A nova vis\u00e3o de prop\u00f3sito das companhias voltado a todos os seus stakeholders, presente em iniciativas como a do Business Roundtable (lan\u00e7ada por CEOs das grandes companhias norte-americanas em 2019), \u00e9 uma resposta a esse mundo incompreens\u00edvel, fr\u00e1gil, ansioso e n\u00e3o-linear.<\/span><\/p>\n

Em 2021, o fundador e presidente executivo do F\u00f3rum de Davos, Klaus Schwab, ressaltou que era necess\u00e1ria uma\u00a0 \u201cGrande Redefini\u00e7\u00e3o\u201d do capitalismo. \u201cPrecisamos passar de um mundo baseado apenas em objetivos materiais para um mundo muito mais consciente do bem-estar das pessoas\u201d, disse. Esse exerc\u00edcio transformador tem de ser capitaneado por lideran\u00e7as genu\u00ednas e conscientes. Luiza Trajano, uma das principais refer\u00eancias no setor empresarial brasileiro e no tema de desenvolvimento sustent\u00e1vel, costuma dizer:\u00a0 \u201cA empresa \u00e9 voltada para o que o CEO quer. Se ele n\u00e3o compra uma ideia, n\u00e3o adianta querer que algu\u00e9m compre o que ele n\u00e3o aceitou para si.\u201d\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

O tempo nos dir\u00e1 se o conceito BANI ser\u00e1 passageiro ou n\u00e3o. Mas j\u00e1 entendemos que h\u00e1 cada vez mais mudan\u00e7as radicais em curso. Em um artigo recente sobre o novo acr\u00f4nimo, o fil\u00f3sofo e historiador brasileiro Leandro Karnal questionou a necessidade de \u201cetiquetas definidoras do mundo\u201d. \u201cConceitos em cascata mudam algo?\u201d, questionou.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Independentemente de classifica\u00e7\u00f5es, temos o \u201cdesafio de enfrentar os desafios\u201d. Nesse sentido, para conseguirmos encarar esse novo mundo BANI, que parece, sim, ser mais fr\u00e1gil, precisaremos de resili\u00eancia. No caso da ansiedade, provavelmente conseguiremos ir em frente com um maior exerc\u00edcio de empatia.\u00a0 A falta de linearidade pode ser contraposta a doses maiores de flexibilidade e antecipa\u00e7\u00e3o. E nada melhor do que a transpar\u00eancia e a sinceridade para lidarmos com o incompreens\u00edvel. Todos os caminhos est\u00e3o abertos para essas oportunidades, e n\u00e3o h\u00e1 respostas prontas. Uma conclus\u00e3o \u00e9 certa: o momento n\u00e3o poderia ser mais adequado para transforma\u00e7\u00f5es.<\/span><\/p>\n

[\/et_pb_text][\/et_pb_column][\/et_pb_row][\/et_pb_section]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

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