Catalan society prioritizes economic progress over pro-independence sentiment

There is a huge consensus on the need for a good coexistence between Catalonia and Spain for the Catalan economy to function well, specifically 80%, the same percentage of Catalans who do not believe that Catalonia will be an independent state within 10 years; this opinion is shared by most supporters of the parties, with the exception of those of Junts. These are two of the main conclusions drawn from LLYC’s analysis of the state of opinion in Catalonia ahead of the regional elections on May 12, based on data from Cluster17. The study has an innovative methodology that collects the positioning of the population through 16 social groups that share basic ideas on substantive issues.

The main concerns

In terms of the major campaign issues, immigration is particularly divisive in Catalonia, with 56% of voters rejecting the idea of promoting the arrival of immigrants to compensate for the reduction of the population for demographic reasons. This rejection comes mainly from right-wing and centrist clusters, but also from some left-wing and pro-independence parties.
There is a broad consensus in Catalan society in favor of maintaining public services as opposed to the option of lower taxes, with only voters further to the right holding the opposite view. A not so large but also considerable majority (almost two thirds) of Catalan society shares the opinion that the taxes that Catalans pay to the Spanish state do not revert fairly to Catalonia.
The report is the result of an in-depth analysis of the positioning of the Catalan electorate in relation to the policies that will mark the immediate future, all projected on the background sociological landscape that indicates a novel structuring of Catalan society into 16 social groups or clusters. In Catalonia, the left-wing clusters have a higher percentage of the electorate than in Spain as a whole.
Regarding the electoral behavior of the clusters, the transversality detected in the preferences of the Catalan electorate stands out, especially due to the presence of PSC voters in a majority of clusters and the capacity of Junts to attract voters from many different clusters, especially centrists but also left-wing voters. The clusters located further to the right concentrate PP and Vox voters, although with a much less relevant electoral weight than in Spain as a whole.

Estimation of seats

In electoral terms, the conclusions of the survey of 1. 264 people of Cluster17, whose fieldwork was carried out between April 19 and 22, are that the PSC will win the elections (with a range of between 38 and 40 deputies) and could govern if it agrees with ERC (which would have between 24 and 26 deputies) and Comuns/Sumar (with between 5 and 6 seats) or with Junts (which would rise to a range of between 32 and 34 deputies), while there would only be options of a pro-independence majority if all the parties unite, including the CUP (which would achieve between 9 and 11 seats) and the far-right party Aliança Catalana, which could enter the Parliament (with between 0 and 3 seats). In any case, the option of a sum of all the pro-independence political forces is complicated, due to the veto announced by the CUP and ERC to Aliança Catalana.

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