Portugal Local Elections 2025: PSD wins as PS resists

The Local Elections of October 12 reshaped the local political map in Portugal. In a scenario marked by high fragmentation and growing territorial competition, the PSD, the largest party in the coalition supporting the government, emerged as the most voted party, winning 136 mayorships.

This result is even more relevant because the Social Democrats not only secured the presidency of the National Association of Portuguese Municipalities, which had been held by the PS for 12 years, but also did so by winning the country’s main municipalities: Lisbon, Porto, Sintra, Vila Nova de Gaia, Braga and Cascais.

Uncertainty over who would be considered the winner lasted until late Sunday night. Exit poll projections predicted ties in the main municipalities, promising a fight to the finish, and raising the possibility of the Socialist Party winning one of the country’s main municipalities, Lisbon or Porto.

But as the hours passed, it became clear that only Luís Montenegro, reelected Prime Minister just five months ago, could claim the title of winner, as he himself admitted. This result strengthens his government and demonstrates that the Social Democrats are the leading party nationally at this point.

On Sunday, the PS suffered a significant decline, subtracting 22 municipalities to the 149 it had before the elections, thus retaining only 127 mayorships. The gap to the PSD isn’t wide (nine municipalities), but the PS failed in almost all of its main objectives: it ceased to be the largest party in local government and lost Lisbon and Porto. Some unexpected victories, such as Coimbra and Viseu, do not offset a below-bar performance.

However, the Socialists managed to reverse the negative image left in May’s Legislative Elections, regaining the trust of the Portuguese people in many municipalities, and thus their leader, José Luís Carneiro, had reasons to smile. The Socialist Party (PS) is falling but resisting, demonstrating its continued importance as a political force in the country.

PSD AND PS ARE STILL THE ONES SETTING THE TONE

The results confirm that the bipartisanship between the PSD and PS continues to shape local government, with both parties combined collecting more than 80% of city halls. The fight to the finish between the two parties reinforces the centrality of these forces in municipal governance, even in a context of greater fragmentation.

Chega, which had a resounding result in the May legislative elections, fell behind CDU and CDS in terms of the number of councils — it only won three. This result leaves the party in an ambiguous position: it won mayorships for the first time, and saw significant growth again compared to the last Local Elections, but it fell far short of the result it hoped to achieve.

This is one of the main conclusions of the evening: PSD and PS continue to be the most relevant parties at the local level, and Chega, which has seen clear and successive electoral growth in recent years, this time achieved a modest result, below expectations, which shows that the party can also be stopped at the polls.

The CDS, junior partner in the government coalition, managed to maintain the control of the six chambers it won in 2021, confirming its importance as a municipal party and adding the presidency of a City Hall – Mêda -, which, although in coalition with the PSD, had the President appointed by the centrists.

On the other hand, independent candidates have once again seen a surge in the number of mayoral elections won for the fifth consecutive election. Twenty mayoral offices are now being led by presidents without any ties to traditional parties, one more than in 2021. These candidates also include prominent political figures, notably the popular Isaltino Morais, who won the Oeiras City Hall for the 11th time, and this time with his best result ever: 62% of the votes.

Confirming the trend of recent elections, the CDU, a coalition comprising the Portuguese Communist Party and the Green Ecologist Party, continued to lose ground in local government, now holding only 12 councils, the coalition’s worst-ever result in local elections. Until now, the CDU governed 19 municipalities.

The Liberal Initiative, despite having celebrated victories in coalition with the PSD, is facing a difficult time, with modest results among independent candidates and a succession of internal crises that have compromised its electoral performance.

The Left Bloc continues to have very little influence in local government, confirming the downward trend of recent years. Despite highlighting the results achieved in coalitions, the party faces a difficult time, reflected in its current reduced parliamentary representation.

Although limited in scope, Livre recorded occasional victories, albeit moderate, in coalitions, such as in Felgueiras, with the Socialist Party, and Coimbra, with the Socialist Party and the PAN. These results, despite localized, allow the party to claim some prominence in these elections.

POSITIVE PERFORMANCE

Luís Montenegro

It was the PSD leader’s first test of strength after the May elections, at a politically sensitive time, days after the presentation of the 2026 State Budget. And it was overcome with great success. The PSD became the main party in local government and also gained control of the country’s main city halls, including the two largest cities – Lisbon (41,69%) and Porto (37,29%).

His party now enters the discussion and negotiation of the State Budget with a legitimacy reinforced at the polls, and at the same time manages to “de-throne” Chega, which now loses the ascendancy it had been showing in recent months on the back of its result in May’s nationwide elections.

The PSD also managed to steal some of the country’s most populous municipalities from the PS, such as Sintra, where the Social Democrats won 33.86% of the votes, and Vila Nova de Gaia, where it secured 40,74% of the vote. The main governing party also achieved important victories in traditionally socialist strongholds, such as Guimarães and Baião, the birthplace of socialist leader José Luís Carneiro, where the PSD won with an absolute majority.

For the Prime Minister, this victory once again gives the PSD the title of “largest party of local power”, reinforcing the trust that the Portuguese have placed in the Social Democrats. Montenegro emphasizes that the party “received the most votes, won the most mandates, elected the most mayors and parish council presidents, achieved a historic victory in the country’s five largest municipalities, and is poised to lead the National Association of Portuguese Municipalities”. Montenegro declared itself the “big winner” of the elections – and it was indeed.

Nuno Melo

The CDS resisted the erosion it experienced at the national level before forming a coalition with the PSD and, alone, managed to retain the six city halls it already controlled. The Christian Democrats have demonstrated their political relevance at the local level.

The result allowed the party leader (and Defense Minister), Nuno Melo, to claim victory, celebrating a “cycle of growth” and ensuring that “the CDS will overcome all difficult moments.” For Melo, this triumph marks yet another success since his election as leader of the party, which has recorded consecutive victories under his leadership.

As with the PSD, this result not only represents a victory for the party, but also reinforces the Government’s position vis-à-vis the main opposition parties, such as the PS and Chega, helping the Executive to move forward with negotiations on the 2026 State Budget with reinforced legitimacy.

MIXED PERFORMANCE

André Ventura

Chega’s rise in the local elections was one of the worst-kept secrets of the night. The party far surpassed its results in the 2021 elections, but that wasn’t difficult: the party wasn’t leading any city halls, nor did it have the national presence it enjoys today. By the end of the night, Ventura secured victory in three City Halls: São Vicente, Entroncamento, and Albufeira.

But this is the only positive statistic for Chega’s leader. Despite tripling the number of votes compared to four years ago, the party only received 11.9%, falling far short of its 22.8% result in the legislative elections and of winning eight City Halls, a goal the party set during its campaign.

Ventura says the country is being embraced by Chega. However, despite winning in 58 municipalities for the Legislative Elections, in these elections, the party was far from being able to compete for victory in the largest cities such as Lisbon and Porto. These results place Chega in a disappointing sixth place in the municipal elections, which takes away the strength and momentum that the party demonstrated after the May elections, when it climbed a step on the podium and established itself as the second political force at the national level.

These results weaken Chega’s influence in the upcoming budget debate and transfer some of its political leverage to the Socialist Party. This was a scenario André Ventura was unprepared for.

José Luís Carneiro

The Socialist Party leader chose the most favorable angle to his analysis of these elections: he compared tonight’s result with the Socialists’ performance in the May legislative elections (in which the Socialist Party trailed Chega in terms of the number of elected representatives). While this interpretation doesn’t tell the whole story, the Socialists appear to have reversed a downward spiral with it — and are once again reclaiming their status as the second-largest national political force.

The PS came very close to the PSD’s result: with 127 councils, it obtained nine fewer than the Social Democrats, leading José Luís Carneiro to declare that “the PS is back”. What he forgot to mention was that the party lost more than two dozen municipalities compared to 2021. On top of that, the PS failed in all the main cities: not only did Porto and Lisbon slip to Pedro Duarte and Carlos Moedas, but also Sintra, Gaia, Braga, and Setúbal fell to its main rival.

Adding up the results of the independent candidacies and the coalitions it was part of, the electoral expression of the PS was limited to 33,5% – the fourth worst result in socialist history in local elections, below the results of 2021, when the PS won 37.5% of the votes.

The Socialist Party (PS) is no longer the largest party in local governance and has lost the National Association of Municipalities, but it also has reasons to smile, after winning in Coimbra, Viseu, and Bragança and managing to reinforce its status as the only credible alternative to the parties supporting the government. With the State Budget debate just around the corner, it’s no small feat for the PS to emerge stronger and with a clout its leader hadn’t yet achieved at the polls.

NEGATIVE PERFORMANCE

Paulo Raimundo

It has proven incapable of reversing the CDU’s electoral decline in the local elections – unstoppable since 2013. The CDU is one of the biggest losers of the night, losing control of several councils, including Setúbal (one of the largest municipalities in the country) and Évora, the last two communist district capitals. Overall, the coalition won 12 mayorships, 7 less than the 19 counted in the last elections.

This is the CDU’s worst-ever result in municipal elections, following the trend seen in the last two local elections. Until now, the communist coalition’s worst result had been in 2021, when it received no more than 8.2% of the vote. This time, the CDU was left with 5.74%.

At the campaign headquarters, Communist leader Paulo Raimundo acknowledged the “negative result.” However, he refused to throw in the towel and celebrated the four new City Halls won, saying this proves there are no “irreversible losses.”

Mariana Leitão

The night was a celebration for the right, but for the Liberal Initiative, it was only a sidekick. Mariana Leitão’s party is part of the coalitions that won in cities like Lisbon, Porto, and Sintra. However, when analyzing only the results of independent candidacies, the IL didn’t make it beyond 1.6% of the votes, falling far short of the results obtained in the legislative elections (5.4%).

Although this is even a higher figure than that achieved in the last local elections, when the IL did not exceed 1.30%, the meager result reinforces the bad moment that the liberals are experiencing, with difficulties in leadership and with results that have fallen short of the party’s expectations in recent electoral moments.

Mariana Mortágua

The negative trend that has marked the party’s most recent electoral performances is confirmed. Not counting the various coalitions in which the party was involved, the Left Bloc did not get beyond 0.6%, a far cry from the party’s golden age, when it exceeded 3% (notably in 2017 and 2009).

For this same reason, Left Bloc leader Mariana Mortágua prefers to view the results achieved through the various coalitions “with interest.” Even so, this interpretation could also reinforce the party’s current predicament, having been reduced to a single representative in the Parliament this year.